The real coming education disruption is online learning, not online degrees. Some argue that online degrees will disrupt traditional degrees. That is a possibility for some targeted areas, but that is not yet a certainty. I can see one potential future where the majority of people with a college degree earned half or more of it online. However, for us to see the potential for true disruption, we are wise to broaden our view. It might be online learning that disrupts, not online degrees.
Online learning encompasses more than online degrees. The phrase “Online degrees” is one that refers specifically to degree programs that are typically offered by regionally and nationally accredited higher education institutions. Online learning can refer to that as well, but it also includes informal online learning, self-directed learning, non-credit and continuing education offerings, offerings by non-universities and the increasingly common experience of people who mix and match online resources and experiences to achieve personally and professionally meaningful learning goals.
Disruptive innovations, as described by Clayton Christiansen, gain traction by providing an unmet need via what is often seen as an initially inferior product. Over time, as a customer base grows and the product gains refinement, this innovation begins to take market share from what was previously the gold standard offering. While many have followed the growth of online degrees since the 1990s (developing out of a much older tradition of distance and correspondence education), it is the online learning beyond courses, degrees and programs that has grown the fastest.
Consider the growth of online learning more broadly compared to online degrees. Yes, online degree programs have grown, but during that growth, Khan Academy grew from nothing to well over 10 million unique visitors per month. Youtube, a source of ubiquitous informal learning and the second largest search engine on the web, grew to over 1 billion monthly users since its start in 2005. Countless communities of practice have emerged online. The concept of the “personal learning network” emerged. We saw the rapid growth of online book clubs, Twitter chats, open courses, low-cost and inexpensive non-credit courses from individuals and organizations, and thousands of companies have started that focus on educational products and services for individuals…not just providers of materials for schools.
This is a potentially larger disruption than online degree programs. These online learning options do not commonly lead to degrees (that can change and is changing in some circumstances). They do lead to something that has always been more important than degrees…learning and progress toward expertise. As concepts like multiple learning pathways, informal learning, and self-directed learning continue to grow in popularity, so will the interest in the broader world of online learning, that which extends far beyond the walls of formal schooling and accredited schools.
What has yet to occur is a clear understanding of how people will show their work, provide evidence of their increased expertise, and leverage that as a means of accomplishing personal goals. Yet, this is the space for a next and emergent round of education startups, innovators, and scholars willing to come to the table. Expect to see much progress in this area over the upcoming years. As it does, more people will begin to recognize that the great disruption in modern education might be online learning and not just online degrees.